Ali Turiano, a FOX 4 meteorologist, examines the arctic air blast that is predicted to lower temperatures in North Texas.
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The signs of true ARCTIC air are in our future.
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All major models agree by Sunday night that upper level flow will be coming from the far northern reaches of the Northwest Territories and the Yukon in Canada.
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It doesn’t power down right away, but takes over on Sunday and kicks into high gear with the coldest days likely on Monday and Tuesday here in NTX.
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It will be a struggle early next week to get above freezing and nights will fall into the teens to near 20 degrees.
-
-
The signs of true ARCTIC air are in our future.
-
All major models agree by Sunday night that upper level flow will be coming from the far northern reaches of the Northwest Territories and the Yukon in Canada.
-
It doesn’t power down right away, but takes over on Sunday and kicks into high gear with the coldest days likely on Monday and Tuesday here in NTX.
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It will be a struggle early next week to get above freezing and nights will fall into the teens to near 20 degrees.
DallasWednesday is a good day for the majority of the country, and Thursday will be warmer. Not yet, but the frigid air is on its way. Next week will be significantly below average because the polar vortex’s center is not heading to Texas, but it will send cold air down from the North Police.
Polar vortex
Texas will receive a blast of cold air from the polar vortex, a region of powerful winds that circles the North Pole. The polar vortex’s center is remaining in Canada, which is good news. Texas will not see it.
It will come in shifts until next week, when it will be freezing.
LINK: Real-time DFW Radar
Wednesday through Friday Forecast
We know:
The weather will be lovely on Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, the temperature will be in the 50s this afternoon with a north wind and sun.
With a few clouds, Thursday will start out close to cold before warming up due to a west wind. The temperature will be in the 60s with mild winds.
We begin monitoring two systems that will affect north Texas on Friday. The first is a Pacific system that is simultaneously weakening and rushing in. Along with increased south winds, it will scatter clouds throughout the region. In essence, it will be mild, but because of the wind and cloud cover, you might not feel it as much as you could.
What is unknown to us:
The air may be too dry to sustain much more than a single shower or two, even if the system will give lift (primarily EAST of Dallas). As the forecast develops on Thursday, we will have more details.
Saturday Forecast
We know:
The frigid air descending in fragments will come in second. By Saturday morning, the first component will already be here. With partly clear sky, it won’t be too cold, but it will be cool enough with temperatures in the 40s throughout the day and wind chills in the 30s due to gusty north winds.
On Saturday night, a little lift will provide more clouds and a few snowflakes before the next round of cold air arrives. It will drop into the 20s by Sunday morning, but that’s nothing to be concerned about.
Make sure the pipes are still covered, cover the plants, start dripping the faucets, and make sure your people and pets are warm on Saturday night. This will have to go at least through Tuesday.
What is unknown to us:
Although flurries are a possibility, we are unsure of the precise location where people are most likely to see the flakes, assuming they appear at all.
Sunday Forecast
We know:
Our typical timing for these air masses is mid-January.
At least the sun will attempt to counteract the incoming arctic air on Sunday, which is predicted to be largely sunny. The sun will bring the temperature back above freezing, but the wind chill will remain in the 20s throughout the day.
What is unknown to us:
Although precipitation is not yet certain, there is a tiny “appendage” on map #2 (GFS) that may bring snow. However, when you examine the others, particularly the ensemble, or group of models, they don’t show the same thing. It’s too early to tell, but Tuesday might bring some light, fluffy snow to some areas of the region.
Monday Forecast: MLK Day/Inauguration Day
The sun will set behind more clouds on MLK Day, limiting warming and barely bringing us back to cold temperatures. If we get a few hours above freezing, we’ll be lucky. Due to east winds from an arctic high pressure system, it will be extremely cold.
The wind chill will be in the teens to about twenty degrees for the majority of the day.
If there is any precipitation next week, it will be snow because the atmosphere will be so frigid. Rain, ice, or sleet won’t be present. Monday evening into Tuesday would be that time.
Tuesday Forecast
There are signs that a storm may form in the southern branch of the jet stream and actually track SOUTH of our area from Monday night into Tuesday (day 7 in this forecast). Unbelievably, it might indicate that central or south Texas has a higher possibility of snowfall than this area.
Three things to be aware of:
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First, the atmosphere will be cold enough at all levels to support snow as the precipitation type. No ice. No sleet. No rain.
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Second, the cold, dry air would only support light snow.
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Third and most important…it’s 7 days away. And trying to pinpoint anything is impossible. All you have to do is think back to the errant predictions of 12″-18″ last week and you’ll know to just “stay tuned”.
7-Day Forecast
The FOX 4 Weather team is the source of the information in this story.
