Wednesday is a good day for the majority of the country, and Thursday will be warmer. Not yet, but the frigid air is on its way. We will remain substantially below average next week because the polar vortex center is not heading to Texas, but it will bring cold air from the North Police.
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The signs of true ARCTIC air are in our future.
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All major models agree by Sunday night that upper level flow will be coming from the far northern reaches of the Northwest Territories and the Yukon in Canada.
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It doesn’t power down right away, but takes over on Sunday and kicks into high gear with the coldest days likely on Monday and Tuesday here in NTX.
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It will be a struggle early next week to get above freezing and nights will fall into the teens to near 20 degrees.
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The signs of true ARCTIC air are in our future.
-
All major models agree by Sunday night that upper level flow will be coming from the far northern reaches of the Northwest Territories and the Yukon in Canada.
-
It doesn’t power down right away, but takes over on Sunday and kicks into high gear with the coldest days likely on Monday and Tuesday here in NTX.
-
It will be a struggle early next week to get above freezing and nights will fall into the teens to near 20 degrees.
DallasWednesday is a good day for the majority of the country, and Thursday will be warmer. Not yet, but the frigid air is on its way. Next week will be significantly below average because the polar vortex’s center is not heading to Texas, but it will send cold air down from the North Police.
Polar vortex
The polar vortex, a band of strong winds that circles the North Pole, will send a blast of arctic air to Texas. The polar vortex’s center is remaining in Canada, which is good news. Texas will not see it.
It will come in shifts until next week, when it will be freezing.
LINK: Real-time DFW Radar
Wednesday through Friday Forecast
We know:
The weather will be lovely on Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, the temperature will be in the 50s this afternoon with a north wind and sun.
With a few clouds, Thursday will start out close to cold before warming up due to a west wind. The temperature will be in the 60s with mild winds.
Friday we start watching two systems that will impact north Texas. First is a Pacific system that will be racing in but weakening at the same time. Along with increased south winds, it will scatter clouds throughout the region. Basically, it will stay mild…but you may not feel it as much as you could thanks to the cloud cover and the wind.
What is unknown to us:
While the system will provide lift, the air may be too dry to support much more than an isolated shower or two (mainly EAST of Dallas). We will have more information as the forecast progresses on Thursday.
Saturday Forecast
We know:
Second will be the cold air coming down in pieces. The first piece will already be here by sunrise on Saturday. It won’t be really cold thanks to mostly sunny skies, but it will be chilly enough as temps remain in the 40s all day with gusty north winds and wind chills in the 30s.
The next piece of cold air comes in on Saturday night, preceded by some lift to produce extra clouds and a few flurries. Nothing to worry about, but it will drop into the 20s by Sunday morning.
On Saturday night, you will want to start dripping the faucets, make sure the pipes are still covered, cover the plants and make sure your people and pets are warm. This will need to continue through at least Tuesday.
What is unknown to us:
While flurries are possible, we don’t know where exactly people would be more likely to see the flakes, if they come at all.
Sunday Forecast
We know:
It’s mid-January, our normal time for these air-masses.
Sunday looks mostly sunny, so at least the sun will try to balance the ARCTIC air coming in. Temps will get back above freezing in the sun but wind chills will stay in the 20s all day.
What is unknown to us:
Precipitation is not set in stone yet, but map #2 (GFS) has a small “appendage” that could bring snow. But as you look at the others (especially the ensemble, or collection of models), they do not indicate the same. There may be some light fluffy snow for parts of the area on Tuesday, but too soon to know.
Monday Forecast: MLK Day/Inauguration Day
On MLK Day, the sun will be fading behind increasing clouds which will limit warming and barely get us back to freezing. We will be lucky if we have a couple of hours above freezing. It will be very cold with east winds coming off an ARCTIC high pressure area.
Most of the day the wind chills will be in the teens to around 20.
The atmosphere will be so cold that if there is any precipitation next week, it will be snow. There won’t be ice or sleet or rain. That would come Monday night into Tuesday.
Tuesday Forecast
From Monday night into Tuesday (day 7 in this forecast), there are indications that a storm could develop in the southern branch of the jet stream and actually track SOUTH of our area. Believe it or not, it could mean better snow chances in central or south Texas versus up here.
Three things to know:
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First, the atmosphere will be cold enough at all levels to support snow as the precipitation type. No ice. No sleet. No rain.
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Second, the cold, dry air would only support light snow.
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Third and most important…it’s 7 days away. And trying to pinpoint anything is impossible. All you have to do is think back to the errant predictions of 12″-18″ last week and you’ll know to just “stay tuned”.
7-Day Forecast
The Source:Information in this article comes from the FOX 4 Weather team.
