Texas winter weather patterns look similar to 2021, ERCOT meteorologist says

Chris Coleman, the chief meteorologist at ERCOT, says there is a risk of a period of really cold temperatures, but the winter will be mild overall.


    • ERCOT’s chief meteorologist says this winter is shaping up to look mild but might have a period of extreme cold.

    • Chris Coleman says the weather patterns look similar to the 2021 winter storm.

    • ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas says they’ve added more energy production since January and the grid is more prepared to handle heavy usage.

  • ERCOT’s chief meteorologist says this winter is shaping up to look mild but might have a period of extreme cold.

  • Chris Coleman says the weather patterns look similar to the 2021 winter storm.

  • ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas says they’ve added more energy production since January and the grid is more prepared to handle heavy usage.

An extreme cold spell that may resemble 2021 is predicted for this winter, according to the chief meteorologist for the Energy Reliability Council of Texas.

When a winter storm delivered a pattern of extreme cold and put the state’s energy grid under strain, Chris Coleman told the board on Tuesday that winter patterns in the state were starting to resemble those of 2021.

Coleman remarked, “The more I look at this winter,” “The more cold potential I see.”

Any time the temperature is 14 degrees Fahrenheit or lower in Dallas, 19 degrees or lower in Austin, and 21 degrees or lower in Houston, Coleman defines “extreme cold” events.

Temperatures in all three cities have reached such benchmarks in five of the last eight winters, which run from December to February.

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Only three times in the last 25 years had the low temperatures been reached.

In January, when temperatures were 12 degrees in Dallas, 18 degrees in Houston, 17 degrees in Austin, and 19 degrees in San Antonio, Coleman said the state set a new winter high record.

According to Coleman, it served as a reminder that extremely cold spells could occur even during an above-normal winter.

He cited the fact that, despite the rest of the year being above average, the winter of 2020–2021 was among the top three coldest winters in the state due to the extremely low temperatures during the winter storm.

Pablo Vegas, CEO of ERCOT, stated that while the risk of reliability is a little higher than it was a year ago, some of that is being countered by increased storage capacity.

Vegas claims that over the previous ten years, the state has witnessed a consistent rise in demand during the winter months.

On January 16, 2024, Texas’s energy demands reached a record 78,349 megawatts.

Winter energy demands in Texas.

Since January, the electricity grid has gained almost 10,000 megawatts of production, according to Vegas.

Vegas claimed that overall, the grid is more equipped to manage higher winter energy demands.

  • The ERCOT board meeting on December 3 provided the information for this story.

The ERCOT board meeting on December 3 provided the information for this story.

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