President Joe Biden steps out of the 2024 presidential race, and Vice President Kamala Harris emerges as the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination. However, Harris faces a tough battle ahead as she contends with former President Donald Trump for the top job.
Despite Harris’s position as the likely Democratic nominee, her poll numbers show a challenging landscape. Recent surveys, taken before Biden’s withdrawal, indicate that Harris’s performance against Trump is comparable to Biden’s. In many polls, both Biden and Harris trail Trump, reflecting the hurdles Harris may face as she prepares for the election.
According to NBC News, a national poll was conducted after Biden’s lackluster debate performance but before the recent assassination attempt on Trump. Both Biden and Harris trailed Trump by 2 points among registered voters. Trump leads Biden by 45% to 43% and has a slightly better margin against Harris, leading her 47% to 45%. These figures are within the poll’s margin of error, meaning the race remains tight.
Similarly, a Fox News poll shows Trump ahead by 1 point over both Biden (Trump 49%, Biden 48%) and Harris (Trump 49%, Harris 48%). Although Harris has shown some improvement over Biden in other surveys, she still lags behind Trump in crucial battleground states.
A CBS News/YouGov poll taken after the assassination attempt reveals that Trump led Biden by 5 points among likely voters (52% to 47%) and Harris trailed by 3 points (51% to 48%). This pattern of close competition continues in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Virginia, where Harris performs 2 points better than Biden.
Harris vs. Biden: Key Differences in Polls
Despite the close numbers, there are notable differences in how Harris and Biden perform across various demographics. In the NBC News poll, Harris shows a stronger appeal among Black voters, leading Trump by 64 points (78% to 14%), compared to Biden’s 57-point lead (69% to 12%). However, Trump performs better among white voters against Harris, with a 16-point lead compared to his 14-point advantage against Biden.
When it comes to Republican voters who are dissatisfied with Trump, Harris does not fare as well as Biden. Among these voters, Trump leads Biden by 46 points (63% to 17%) but extends his lead to 57 points (73% to 16%) against Harris. On the flip side, voters interested in third-party candidates show more openness to Harris. In a hypothetical matchup with Trump, Harris leads 46% to 39%, compared to Biden and Trump being nearly tied.
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Positive-Negative Scores: Biden, Harris, and Trump
In terms of approval ratings, Biden, Harris, and Trump have similar positive-negative scores. According to NBC News, Trump holds a positive rating of 38% and a negative rating of 53%, resulting in a net rating of -15. Biden’s ratings are slightly worse, with 36% positive and 53% negative (-17 net rating). Harris has a 32% positive rating and 50% negative rating, giving her a net rating of -18.
Despite having a lower positive rating than Biden, Harris benefits from a larger neutral voter segment—15% compared to Biden’s 11%. This neutral group could provide Harris with opportunities for growth or pose risks, depending on how she engages with these voters.
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Summary
Kamala Harris is poised to become the Democratic nominee with Biden’s exit from the 2024 race. However, her current poll numbers reveal a tight and competitive race against Donald Trump. Harris shows some strengths, particularly among Black voters and third-party supporters, but also faces challenges, particularly with dissatisfied Republican voters and white voters. As the race progresses, Harris’s ability to capitalize on her strengths and address her weaknesses will be crucial for her campaign.
